Radico Khaitan (RADICO.NS) Q4FY25 Earnings: Premium Surge Fuels 71% Net Profit Jump – Is the Rally Sustainable?
Stock Overview
- Current Price: ₹2,537.20
- 52-week Range: ₹1,428.95 – ₹2,637.70
- Recent Trend: Up +36.4% in the last 6 months, outperforming the Nifty 50 (up ~12%)
- Volume Activity: Notable uptick in volumes post-earnings, hinting at renewed institutional interest.
Radico Khaitan, one of India’s leading IMFL (Indian Made Foreign Liquor) producers, posted a stellar Q4FY25 performance led by surging demand for its premium brands like Rampur Single Malt and Jaisalmer Gin. The stock is now trading close to its 52-week high, reflecting investor optimism around its premiumization strategy.
Financial Health Check – QoQ & YoY
Revenue & Profit
- Q4FY25 Revenue: ₹4,485 crore (up 15% YoY)
- Net Profit: ₹92.07 crore (up 71% YoY from ₹53.9 crore)
- Net Profit Margin: ~2.05% vs. industry average ~1.5%
- EPS: ₹6.88 vs. ₹4.12 in Q4FY24
- Key Growth Driver: Premium brands contributed 63% of total revenue with 22% YoY growth.
Debt & Liquidity
- Debt-to-Equity: Estimated below 0.4 – conservative and manageable
- Interest Coverage Ratio: Healthy, over 8x
- Cash & Equivalents: ~₹450 crore – provides a comfortable operational runway and expansion buffer
Insight: The margin expansion is largely attributable to price hikes in premium segments and operational efficiencies in manufacturing and distribution.
Market & Competitive Positioning
Industry Trends
- The Indian spirits industry is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% till FY30, driven by a young population, urbanization, and rising disposable incomes.
- States like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have introduced favorable liquor policies, reducing taxes and easing retail restrictions for premium spirits.
Competitive Benchmarking
| Company | Q4 Revenue Growth | Premium Share | Margin Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radico Khaitan | +15% | 63% | Expanding |
| United Spirits | +9% | ~55% | Stable |
| Pernod Ricard India | N/A (Private) | >70% est. | Expanding |
Differentiators:
- Strong rural distribution and pan-India premium branding.
- Premiumization strategy outperforming peers in volume and value growth.
Q4FY25 vs Q3FY25: What’s Improved?
| Metric | Q4FY25 | Q3FY25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹4,485 crore | ₹4,210 crore | +6.5% |
| Net Profit | ₹92.07 crore | ₹95.5 crore | -3.6% |
| Premium Brand Sales | +22% YoY | +18% YoY | Acceleration |
Management Commentary:
Abhishek Khaitan (MD) reiterated the goal of achieving ₹500 crore sales from luxury brands in FY26, reflecting confidence in the demand trend and ongoing brand investments.
Sentiment Analysis
-
FinBERT Model Summary:
- Positive Sentiment: 71%
- Neutral: 23%
- Negative: 6%
-
Retail Investor Buzz (Reddit/StockTwits):
“#Radico is India’s next premium FMCG. Rampur whisky going global!”
“Management focus on premium is working wonders.” -
Institutional Commentary:
HDFC Securities and Motilal Oswal analysts rate the stock as “Outperform”, citing strong brand equity and volume resilience.
Technical Analysis
- Short-Term (10-Day SMA): Bullish crossover
- RSI: 64 – near overbought zone, but not signaling reversal yet
- MACD: Bullish divergence intact
- Support: ₹2,500 | Resistance: ₹2,640 (52W High)
Note: A break above ₹2,640 on strong volume could trigger a fresh leg toward ₹2,750.
Risks to Monitor
- Raw Material Inflation: ENA and glass price hikes could impact margins
- Regulatory Shocks: Sudden excise hikes in key states like UP or Maharashtra
- Competitive Pricing: Pernod and Diageo could trigger price wars in key segments
Conclusion: Is Radico Khaitan a Buy?
Radico’s sharp earnings jump, premium brand focus, and tailwinds from policy support make it a strong mid-cap consumption story. While valuations are rich, earnings visibility and brand scalability offer long-term comfort.
Rating: BUY on Dips
Target (12M): ₹2,850
Risk Level: Moderate
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